Schai

Closed the position with ca. -$50 loss. A position in a similar gambler stock was closed with ca. $100 profit, so in total won $50 on $300 investment. Per se not bad but in context of the drawdown that had to be tolerated – nothing good. And of course I hoped for a better pay-off from this lottery.

Closed the position with ca. $100 profit. A position in a similar gambler stock was closed with ca. -$50, so in total won $50 on $300 investment. Per se not bad but in context of the drawdown that had to be tolerated – nothing good. And of course I hoped for a better pay-off from this lottery.

Today the stock fell by -42%, as Destination Maternity and Orchestra-Prémaman scraped merger.

I take and calmly and put next $100 at stake.
NB! $100, not $200 (because doubling would mean a martingale, which will not make you rich)!

Code to generate the last chart using data from AlphaVantage

avUrl = paste0("https://www.alphavantage.co/query?function=TIME_SERIES_DAILY_ADJUSTED&symbol=CUR&outputsize=FULL&apikey=<yourAPIkey>")
dat <- fromJSON(avUrl)
nms = names(dat$"Time Series (Daily)")
N = length(nms)
dates = as.POSIXlt(nms)
OHLCV = array(0.0,…[Read more]

Stada turned out to be a covered stock,

Bain Capital und Cinven try to acquire it once again. The new offer price is set to €66.25 but now they need only 63% of shareholders agree.

Additionally, there are Hedge Fonds in the game.

Thus close position at €65.3
Though from rational point of view the price shall not exceed $66.25, there mig…[Read more]

I sold short at €64!
By the way, the news that Stada’s CEO and CFO resign is somehow left unnoticed.
But this is another good reason to go short!

Silver becomes interesting again. However, I would not buy yet because there is a risk that it will further fall if USD gets stronger.

After several month of awaiting my wheat position started to germinate! 🙂
The reason behind is likely a cold summer in Russia.

After several month of awaiting my wheat position started to germinate! 🙂

I guessed the significant price levels surprisingly precise. Now the stock reached €64 (and then fell a little bit below). Bain Capital and Cinven are going to make a new acquisition offer.
The previous acquisition prices was €66. Likely it will be at least as high but not much higher. So there is about €3 or €4 growth potential and (from recent…[Read more]

BTW, by nickel the situation is inverse: low spot prices and high contango. So Nickel long (for me it is already the case) and Zinc short is a market-neutral pair trading.

As I expected, STADA has reached €62. On 03.08.2017 they will publish Q2 2017 report. Recall that the market can react irrationally!
So for conservative traders I recommend to wait for this reaction … and if stock jumps then go short (unless the report turns out to be really super-duper).

Bought it today at $15.69!
It may continue falling but in long term it has a potential to become a tenbagger!

Gut recover but further growth is in question. So I would sell