Unfortunately we (i.e. I) have misestimated the Corona-Virus impact. Elle's portfolio experiences a severe drawdown. Still we are happy that it happened in the beginning (rather than in the end) of our savings plan.
Continue reading "JuniorDepot23 – COVID Crash impacts Elle’s Portfolio but not her Optimism"
Mattel, a company that owns Barbie brand, currently experiences bad times and suffers losses. However, this may be irrelevant for tactical traders, esp. those who rely exclusively on technical analysis. But now they shall be strongly disappointed too: MAT stock has drawn a pattern, which can be named doubleF*ck.
Continue reading "MATtel Stock – Barbie Reaches Puberty and Draws a DoubleF*uck Chart Pattern"
The idea that the stock picking makes less and less sense since the markets are more and more driven by the macroeconomic factors is quite popular.
Especially right now, as the markets are falling (like on todays FEd decision to increase the rates), this idea may seem to be plausible. However, we show that in the long term the stocks do show enough of individuality. Continue reading "PCA, Autoencoders and the Feasibility of Stockpicking"
On November 13, 2018 the shares of EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) fell down by 46%. Yet, as Montley Fool reported, it was just a spinoff of the midstream assets into a separate public company, Equitrans Midstream Corp... FinViz and eoddata.com has completely failed to depict this event properly. Yahoo.Finance and AlphaVantage coped with it but only to some extent. We discuss the problems, caused by such events and sketch some ways to mitigate them. Continue reading "Historic Black Swans in Historical Financial Data: EQT on 13.11. 2018 et al."
A year ago the Business Insider reported about the "the stocks market's robot revolution". Whereas the title was crying, a summary was more reserved: The fund has outperformed the S&P 500 so far, but a much longer trading period is needed to assess whether it can truly offer market-beating returns. I scheduled in my calendar to have a look at this fund in a year, telling a colleague, who pointed me on AIEQ that I would bet a bottle of whisky (bot not a farm!) that this ETF will perform worse than its benchmark. I turned out to be right.
Continue reading "AIEQ the AI Powered Equity ETF: Artificial Intelligence is Still Losing to a Natural Stupidity"
A recent post "Fasten your seat belt for stocks: October is almost here" on MarketWatch, repeated by Morningstar and shared in my social networks may make an illusion that it is likely to expect high(est) volatility in October. A little bit more detailed statistical analysis shows that such expectation is superficial.
A more general (and very old) lesson from this case: the statistical analysis is much more than a primitive consideration of the mean values in groups. And of course: don't trust provoking titles. Continue reading "The Highest Volatility in October? Don’t trust a Superficial Statistics!"
On the fateful Wednesday of November 1st, 2017 Yahoo decided to stop their – until then – free service of delivering real time market data as a text stream through a special URL. For hundreds of businesses and individuals who had relied for years on Yahoo's benevolent free service, this single action meant only one thing: Instant death! Continue reading "Yahoo Finance Live Feeds in Excel after their API Discontinuation in November 2017"
Whereas the opinions on the usefulness of technical analysis are highly controversial, it is generally agreed that the fundamental analysis does make sense. Value investing, e.g. the choice of companies with low p/e and p/b coefficients but high RoE and EBIT-Margin is not an uncommon approach. However, the data quality and creative data interpretation are critical. Otherwise one yields yet another GiGo: Garbage in, Garbage out! Continue reading "Your Fundamental Analysis is Only as Good as Your Data are: The Example of NWL"
Two months ago we suggested you to buy a list of stocks, carefully selected from SP500 index on both fundamental and technical criteria. One month later we have published the results: though our stocklist has clearly beaten SPY there were no evidences of formal statistical significance. Now there are. Moreover, you have an opportunity to buy our next stockpicking report just for $10. Continue reading "What You Have Missed by Not Buying Our Stocklist for just $5 – Part II: Statistical significance"
One month ago we screened all stocks from SP 500 index and suggested busy investors to get rid of information overload and purchase our stock list just for 5 USD. Only a few investors considered our offer, which has brought about 3% return within a month, whereas SP 500 return stagnated around zero. Continue reading "What You Have Missed by Not Buying Our Stocklist for just $5"