Since we did not report about Elle's progress for more than a year, the readers of letYourMoneyGrow.com might have thought that we have terminated our experiment of growing a 7 (currently 11) years young girl as an investor. Nope, not at all! As a matter of fact we worked hard on creation and test of a deep neural network for the stock (pre)selection. And it did work, our CAGR goal is (over)achieved!
Continue reading "JuniorDepot29 – (Over)archieving the Financial Plan (thanks to AI and NI)"
A pig will find the dirt (Russian proverb). The market will find reasons to grow. To fall as well. It is worth documenting (and periodically recalling) what happened on 9/11/2000 (as well as shortly before and after this date).
In the end of October the German market was not in the mood, upset by the 2nd (partial) lockdown. However, after a healthy DAX correction, the greed got started to dominate again. On November the 9th two really(?) good news arrived: first the preliminary victory of Joe Biden, followed by 90% efficiency of Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine.
Continue reading "Pfizer/BioNtech and Covid-impacted stocks on 9/11/2020 and afterwards – yet another market irrationality"
Elle's depot turned back to profitability thanks to recent exuberant market growth. We closed most of our positions and await a drop after a pretty groundless euphoria. Continue reading "JuniorDepot25 – Profitable Again"
Elle's timing during the Corona-Crisis was premature and lead to a significant drawdown. However, her depot recovers gradually. We accumulate cash, awaiting the 2nd wave of COVID-19. Continue reading "JuniorDepot24 – A Gradual Recovery"
Unfortunately we (i.e. I) have misestimated the Corona-Virus impact. Elle's portfolio experiences a severe drawdown. Still we are happy that it happened in the beginning (rather than in the end) of our savings plan.
Continue reading "JuniorDepot23 – COVID Crash impacts Elle’s Portfolio but not her Optimism"
Mattel, a company that owns Barbie brand, currently experiences bad times and suffers losses. However, this may be irrelevant for tactical traders, esp. those who rely exclusively on technical analysis. But now they shall be strongly disappointed too: MAT stock has drawn a pattern, which can be named doubleF*ck.
Continue reading "MATtel Stock – Barbie Reaches Puberty and Draws a DoubleF*uck Chart Pattern"
The idea that the stock picking makes less and less sense since the markets are more and more driven by the macroeconomic factors is quite popular.
Especially right now, as the markets are falling (like on todays FEd decision to increase the rates), this idea may seem to be plausible. However, we show that in the long term the stocks do show enough of individuality. Continue reading "PCA, Autoencoders and the Feasibility of Stockpicking"
On November 13, 2018 the shares of EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) fell down by 46%. Yet, as Montley Fool reported, it was just a spinoff of the midstream assets into a separate public company, Equitrans Midstream Corp... FinViz and eoddata.com has completely failed to depict this event properly. Yahoo.Finance and AlphaVantage coped with it but only to some extent. We discuss the problems, caused by such events and sketch some ways to mitigate them. Continue reading "Historic Black Swans in Historical Financial Data: EQT on 13.11. 2018 et al."
A year ago the Business Insider reported about the "the stocks market's robot revolution". Whereas the title was crying, a summary was more reserved: The fund has outperformed the S&P 500 so far, but a much longer trading period is needed to assess whether it can truly offer market-beating returns. I scheduled in my calendar to have a look at this fund in a year, telling a colleague, who pointed me on AIEQ that I would bet a bottle of whisky (bot not a farm!) that this ETF will perform worse than its benchmark. I turned out to be right.
Continue reading "AIEQ the AI Powered Equity ETF: Artificial Intelligence is Still Losing to a Natural Stupidity"
A recent post "Fasten your seat belt for stocks: October is almost here" on MarketWatch, repeated by Morningstar and shared in my social networks may make an illusion that it is likely to expect high(est) volatility in October. A little bit more detailed statistical analysis shows that such expectation is superficial.
A more general (and very old) lesson from this case: the statistical analysis is much more than a primitive consideration of the mean values in groups. And of course: don't trust provoking titles. Continue reading "The Highest Volatility in October? Don’t trust a Superficial Statistics!"