Currently the stocks are expensive and the commodities are cheap (though not all of them). We conduct a lite analysis of investment opportunities and construct a mid-term commodity portfolio for a retail investor with €10000+ capital. Continue reading "Market Spotlight: Pick up Commodities but be picky"
Our simulator allows you to simulate 100 future scenarios of your portfolios, estimate the expected risk, return and correlations, helping you to improve the diversification of your portfolios. The simulator projects the historical returns in future and is completely model-free (in particular, we don't make an unrealistic assumption of Normally-distributed returns). Though the past doesn't capture all possible future scenarios, it provides a good idea of possible outcomes.
Continue reading "Portfolio Simulator – estimate the expected risk and return of your investments"
Zum 1. April veröffentlicht letYourMoneyGrow.com eine Antwort auf das Interview "Tanzen lernen Sie auch nicht ohne Tanzlehrer" von Marcus Vitt, Vorstandssprechers des Bankhauses Donner & Reuschel. Mit lustigem Titel aber ziemlich ernstem Inhalt.
Continue reading "Schlechten Tänzer stören immer die eigenen Ho(r)den"
A common belief: adding extra asset to a portfolio will automatically reduce the portfolio risk. We provide a counter-example resorting only to the simplest algebra and explain why this erroneous belief is so common.
There is yet another Roboadvisor from Vanguard Group. As any RoboAdvisor, its recommendations are far from perfection. However, I like it (at least more than others) because the Vanguard guys managed to make it simple. On the other hand I am quite disappointed that they do not show how a suggested portfolio may evolve (and I am quite sure that legendary John Bogle would be disappointed too). That's why I made a simple scenario simulator on my own. It is based on sample with replacement.
Continue reading "A simple scenario simulator for Vanguard optimal portfolio"
- Sometimes (esp. to fool inexperienced retail investors) the diversification is claimed to be a silver bullet (even in a financial crisis). I show that in crises the diversification effect weakens significantly but still persists (esp. for "defensive" stocks).
- I argue that in a normal (non-turbulent) market the diversification is very helpful in theory but also critically consider its applicability in practice.
- The results that we obtained for the DAX / German stock market should be extrapolated with caution for other markets. You will also see why it is better to watch and know the market (rather than to blindly rely on quantitative analysis and common sense).