Quirin Honorarberatung: gut gedacht aber schlecht gemacht

Etablierung der unabhängigen (und deswegen entgeltlichen) Finanzberatung, sowie die transparente und nachvollziehbare  Vermögensverwaltung wäre ein großer Vorschritt für die Deutsche Finanzindustrie. Das strebt anscheinend die Quirin Bank. Doch gibt es einige wesentlichen Unterschiede zwischen der Werbung, dem roten Buch von Quirin und der Tatsache. Continue reading "Quirin Honorarberatung: gut gedacht aber schlecht gemacht"

Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [M-Z]

Stock tickers from M to Z. Continue reading "Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [M-Z]"

Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [G-L]

Stock tickers from G to L. Continue reading "Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [G-L]"

Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [D-F]

Volatility clustering plots for stocks with yahoo.finance tickers from D to F. Continue reading "Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [D-F]"

Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [A-C]

Volatility clustering plots for stocks with yahoo.finance tickers from A to C.
Continue reading "Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [A-C]"

Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [0-9]

We continue publishing the visualized results from Vasily Nekrasov's research. Reportedly, when Warren Buffett happens to hear complains that there are thousands of stocks to scrutinize, he says "well, start with letter A". We go even further and start with digit 0, since there are (were) suchlike tickers by yahoo.finance. Continue reading "Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part II – 2940 stocks – [0-9]"

Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part I – Indices

This is a well-known fact that the stock prices are virtually unpredictable. However, stock volatilities can more or less be forecasted! In 2012 Vasily Nekrasov scrutinized about 3000 asset price time series, obtained from yahoo.finance. Approximately in half of cases the volatility was piecewise-stationary and thus predicatable. We put online the technical record from 2012 and start publishing the visualized results Continue reading "Volatility Clustering and Piecewise Homoscedasticity – Part I – Indices"

ETF Sparplan: Risiken und Vorteile richtig verstehen

Wir erklären, wie ein Sparplan funktioniert und warum die Mantra „langfristig wird es nach oben gehen“ für einen ETF-Sparplan ungültig ist.
ETF Sparplan - Wachstum und Crash Continue reading "ETF Sparplan: Risiken und Vorteile richtig verstehen"

Savings Plan Scenario Simulator


Definitely, you have heard a mantra from many asset managers that want your money: in the long term your investment in stocks or an index ETF will grow. Though for a one-time investment it is generally true (however, not always, recall NIKKEI), it is far away from truth for a savings plan. For instance, even if you run your savings plan for 30 years and assume annually 6% expected return and 20% volatility (very optimistic, indeed), you will make losses in ca. 15% of scenarios. And if your saving plan lasts "only" 10 years, the number of scenarios with losses will be about 30%! Additionally, they delude you showing the mean (or expected) scenario. Mean is highly influenced by a couple of extremely good outcomes: finally, your investment cannot fall below zero but there is no upper bound, at least theoretically. That's why the average scenario often looks too optimistic. It is much better to consider the median as the measure of central tendency instead. Try to simulate your savings plan yourself!

Expected mean return %
Volatility %
Annual Savings USD, EUR, YEN or whatever currency 🙂
Projection horizon years

Continue reading "Savings Plan Scenario Simulator"

Market Spotlight: Pick up Commodities but be picky

Currently the stocks are expensive and the commodities are cheap (though not all of them). We conduct a lite analysis of investment opportunities and construct a mid-term commodity portfolio for a retail investor with €10000+ capital. Continue reading "Market Spotlight: Pick up Commodities but be picky"