[Vasily Nekrasov]

Closed the position with ca. -$50 loss. A position in a similar gambler stock was closed with ca. $100 profit, so in total won $50 on $300 investment. Per se not bad but in context of the drawdown that had to be tolerated – nothing good. And of course I hoped for a better pay-off from this lottery.

[Vasily Nekrasov]

Closed the position with ca. $100 profit. A position in a similar gambler stock was closed with ca. -$50, so in total won $50 on $300 investment. Per se not bad but in context of the drawdown that had to be tolerated – nothing good. And of course I hoped for a better pay-off from this lottery.

[Vasily Nekrasov]

Today the stock fell by -42%, as Destination Maternity and Orchestra-Prémaman scraped merger.

I take and calmly and put next $100 at stake.
NB! $100, not $200 (because doubling would mean a martingale, which will not make you rich)!

[Vasily Nekrasov]

Code to generate the last chart using data from AlphaVantage

  avUrl = paste0("https://www.alphavantage.co/query?function=TIME_SERIES_DAILY_ADJUSTED&symbol=CUR&outputsize=FULL&apikey=<yourAPIkey>")
    dat <- fromJSON(avUrl)
    nms = names(dat$"Time Series (Daily)")
    N = length(nms)
    dates = as.POSIXlt(nms)
    OHLCV = array(0.0, dim=c(N,8))
    for(n in 1:N)
    {
      OHLCV[n, 1] = as.double((dat$"Time Series (Daily)")[[n]]$"1. open")
      OHLCV[n, 2] = as.double((dat$"Time Series (Daily)")[[n]]$"2. high") 
      OHLCV[n, 3] = as.double((dat$"Time Series (Daily)")[[n]]$"3. low")
      OHLCV[n, 4] = as.double((dat$"Time Series (Daily)")[[n]]$"4. close")
      OHLCV[n, 6] = as.double((dat$"Time Series (Daily)")[[n]]$"5. adjusted close")
      OHLCV[n, 5] = as.double((dat$"Time Series (Daily)")[[n]]$"6. volume")
      OHLCV[n, 7] = as.double((dat$"Time Series (Daily)")[[n]]$"7. dividend amount")
      OHLCV[n, 8] = as.double((dat$"Time Series (Daily)")[[n]]$"8. split coefficient")
    }

curStock = as.quantmod.OHLC(zoo(OHLCV[, 1:6], order.by=dates), col.names = c("Open", "High", "Low", "Close", "Volume", "Adjusted"))
chartSeries(curStock)

[Vasily Nekrasov]

Stada turned out to be a covered stock,

Bain Capital und Cinven try to acquire it once again. The new offer price is set to €66.25 but now they need only 63% of shareholders agree.

Additionally, there are Hedge Fonds in the game.

Thus close position at €65.3
Though from rational point of view the price shall not exceed $66.25, there might be an irrational exuberance. Since this is a short position, better close.

[Vasily Nekrasov]

I sold short at €64!
By the way, the news that Stada’s CEO and CFO resign is somehow left unnoticed.
But this is another good reason to go short!

Attachments:

1. 

   STADA_short_on_20170706.png
   

[Vasily Nekrasov]

Silver becomes interesting again. However, I would not buy yet because there is a risk that it will further fall if USD gets stronger.

[Vasily Nekrasov]

After several month of awaiting my wheat position started to germinate! 🙂
The reason behind is likely a cold summer in Russia.

[Vasily Nekrasov]

I guessed the significant price levels surprisingly precise. Now the stock reached €64 (and then fell a little bit below). Bain Capital and Cinven are going to make a new acquisition offer.
The previous acquisition prices was €66. Likely it will be at least as high but not much higher. So there is about €3 or €4 growth potential and (from recent history) about €6 drop potential if the acquisition fails again.
So the odds are for going short. But going short, never forget the money management (and Volkswagen short squeeze).

[Vasily Nekrasov]

BTW, by nickel the situation is inverse: low spot prices and high contango. So Nickel long (for me it is already the case) and Zinc short is a market-neutral pair trading.

[Vasily Nekrasov]

As I expected, STADA has reached €62. On 03.08.2017 they will publish Q2 2017 report. Recall that the market can react irrationally!
So for conservative traders I recommend to wait for this reaction … and if stock jumps then go short (unless the report turns out to be really super-duper).

[Vasily Nekrasov]

Bought it today at $15.69!
It may continue falling but in long term it has a potential to become a tenbagger!

[Vasily Nekrasov]

Gut recover but further growth is in question. So I would sell

Attachments:

1. 

   GoPro_recovered.png
   

[Vasily Nekrasov]

The stock is again looking attractive ($7.77) but the most cautious investors (like me) should set the buy-limit near $7.25

[Vasily Nekrasov]

Ride on turbulence.
After Goldman downgraded GoPro I thought that it was a good opportunity to buy. And started buying in small tranches.
Finally made infinitesimal Profit, now waiting for a opportunity to re-enter.
Date Stocks Price Trade P&L
16.03.2017 19:16 79 7,765 sell 8,08%
16.03.2017 09:18 79 7,467 sell 3,94%
14.03.2017 16:03 150 6,801 sell -5,33%
14.03.2017 14:54 155 6,786 buy N/A
13.03.2017 14:36 77 7,467 buy N/A
06.03.2017 16:43 77 7,703 buy N/A

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