Historic Black Swans in Historical Financial Data: EQT on 13.11. 2018 et al.

On November 13, 2018 the shares of EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) fell down by 46%. Yet, as Montley Fool reported, it was just a spinoff of the midstream assets into a separate public company, Equitrans Midstream Corp... FinViz and eoddata.com has completely failed to depict this event properly. Yahoo.Finance and AlphaVantage coped with it but only to some extent. We discuss the problems, caused by such events and sketch some ways to mitigate them. Continue reading "Historic Black Swans in Historical Financial Data: EQT on 13.11. 2018 et al."

JuniorDepot11 – Speculating with DAX and WTI Oil

Elle, a 8-years old girl, who learns to manage her wealth, got started to trade more and more intensively. During the current market turbulence it actually makes sense. This time we speculate with an oil-ETC and learn the nuances of commodity trading. Continue reading "JuniorDepot11 – Speculating with DAX and WTI Oil"

AIEQ the AI Powered Equity ETF: Artificial Intelligence is Still Losing to a Natural Stupidity

A year ago the Business Insider reported about the "the stocks market's robot revolution". Whereas the title was crying, a summary was more reserved: The fund has outperformed the S&P 500 so far, but a much longer trading period is needed to assess whether it can truly offer market-beating returns. I scheduled in my calendar to have a look at this fund in a year, telling a colleague, who pointed me on AIEQ that I would bet a bottle of whisky (bot not a farm!) that this ETF will perform worse than its benchmark. I turned out to be right.

Continue reading "AIEQ the AI Powered Equity ETF: Artificial Intelligence is Still Losing to a Natural Stupidity"

Intraday Somersault of Leoni AG stock: A General Turnaround in German Automotive?

Leoni AG is a German company, specializing in production of high-quality cables for cars. Its shares are traded in sDAX (index of the best German smallcaps). From the beginning of the year Leoni's stock has lost more than 50%. Today, as Leoni has issued a profit warning, its stocks first fell about -6% but then quickly turned around to +5%, ending up by +1.5%. It may mean that the market is tired of the negative news. And even if not yet, German automotive is already fundamentally cheap. Continue reading "Intraday Somersault of Leoni AG stock: A General Turnaround in German Automotive?"

JuniorDepot10 – Speculating Gold and Getting Benefits of Diversification

This time Elle, a 7-year old girl, first bought a physical gold ETC but then quickly sold it and bought an ETF on DAX. Concretely this trade was a bit premature but the portfolio diversification (in particular by means of precious metals) still brought benefits. Continue reading "JuniorDepot10 – Speculating Gold and Getting Benefits of Diversification"

Tom and Gerry 3: a dead mouse bounce?

Whereas Tom Tailor continues to decline, Gerry Weber has recently bounced +40% as the founder Gerhard Weber resigned from CEO position. Yet we bought Tom Tailor stock, although we usually do not trade against a strong trend. We explain why it was plausible to make an exception this time. Continue reading "Tom and Gerry 3: a dead mouse bounce?"

The Highest Volatility in October? Don’t trust a Superficial Statistics!

A recent post "Fasten your seat belt for stocks: October is almost here" on MarketWatch, repeated by Morningstar and shared in my social networks may make an illusion that it is likely to expect high(est) volatility in October. A little bit more detailed statistical analysis shows that such expectation is superficial.
A more general (and very old) lesson from this case: the statistical analysis is much more than a primitive consideration of the mean values in groups. And of course: don't trust provoking titles. Continue reading "The Highest Volatility in October? Don’t trust a Superficial Statistics!"

Tom and Gerry 2 – a perfect case study for peer trading

Tom [Tailor] and Gerry [Weber] are two German fashion boutiques (both are small caps). On January 7, 2016 I wrote a post "Tom And Gerry - Turnaround By Two German Fashion SmallCaps". In this post I correctly predicted the growth of Gerry Weber, based on the previous growth of Tom Tailor. Now one could have predicted the fall of Tom Tailor based on the previous fall of Gerry Weber. A perfect pair for peer trading isn' it?!

Continue reading "Tom and Gerry 2 – a perfect case study for peer trading"

JuniorDepot9 – Buying Silver ETC again

Elle, a 7-year old girl, confronted a hard choice this time: both German stocks and precious metals were relatively cheap. Finally, she decided to increase the position in silver, although before she has already bought a silver ETC a little bit prematurely. Continue reading "JuniorDepot9 – Buying Silver ETC again"

Your Fundamental Analysis is Only as Good as Your Data are: The Example of NWL

Whereas the opinions on the usefulness of technical analysis are highly controversial, it is generally agreed that the fundamental analysis does make sense. Value investing, e.g. the choice of companies with low p/e and p/b coefficients but high RoE and EBIT-Margin is not an uncommon approach. However, the data quality and creative data interpretation are critical. Otherwise one yields yet another GiGo: Garbage in, Garbage out! Continue reading "Your Fundamental Analysis is Only as Good as Your Data are: The Example of NWL"