JuniorDepot12 – DAX, Silver, Oil: pessimistic end of year and optimistic sentiment for future

By Elle's portfolio we implicitly target the CAGR of 6%. Alas, this year the CAGR turned out to be -24.7%! Especially our recent portfolio restructuring (sell Silver and buy DAX and WTI Oil) was not good.
Still we are better than a passive savings plan in DAX (this would have a CAGR of -30.7%) and look optimistically in future. Especially pleasant was Elle's reaction on the (temporary) drawdown: calm and stoic. This a necessarily trait for a growing Warren Buffet.
Continue reading "JuniorDepot12 – DAX, Silver, Oil: pessimistic end of year and optimistic sentiment for future"

JuniorDepot11 – Speculating with DAX and WTI Oil

Elle, a 8-years old girl, who learns to manage her wealth, got started to trade more and more intensively. During the current market turbulence it actually makes sense. This time we speculate with an oil-ETC and learn the nuances of commodity trading. Continue reading "JuniorDepot11 – Speculating with DAX and WTI Oil"

Market Spotlight: Pick up Commodities but be picky

Currently the stocks are expensive and the commodities are cheap (though not all of them). We conduct a lite analysis of investment opportunities and construct a mid-term commodity portfolio for a retail investor with €10000+ capital. Continue reading "Market Spotlight: Pick up Commodities but be picky"

Oil WTI short: why it will likely fall (29.09.2016)

OPEC agrees on oil cut at Algiers meeting ... oil price jumped more than 6% ... a good opportunity to short WTI!

  • OPEC members may agree on whatever they want but it is unclear how they will control the agreement and penalize violators.
  • As soon as price grows the production of shale oil in USA will be increased.
  • The current Brent price is $49.13 and WTI costs $47.69. Respectively, the spread is $1.44, which is pretty narrow (normally it is about $2) so it will likely widen, thus it is better to short WTI, not Brent.
    Yes, there we times as the spread was tighter and even negative, but by those times both WTI and Brent tended to fall.

Update 04.10.2016
So far the oil price keeps growing though I was right with shorting WTI, not Brent, since the latter grew more intensively; the spread is now normal, about $2.
Today it was a price dip, so I halved my position with a minimal loss and keep about 1.5% of my trading capital in WTI short.