Author: letYourMoneyGrow.com

Reproducing a Pseudo-Random Walk down the Wall Street

Malkiel affirms that the stock returns follow the random walk. Lo and MacKinlay retort they do not.
In this post I show how a mean-reverting process can be efficiently disguised as a random walk. Most likely, the market does follow a similar disguise-pattern (at least sometimes). Continue reading "Reproducing a Pseudo-Random Walk down the Wall Street"

JuniorDepot15 – Reaching 13.75% CAGR with stockpicking

Elle got started with her savings plan in Jan 2018 with a monthly installment of €100. Now she has sufficient trading capital, so that (taking broker fees into account) the stock picking may make sense. She tried to make her hands dirty with stock selection and earned €139,53 gain or 8.6% return in less than a month! The CAGR of her savings plan is currently 13.75% Continue reading "JuniorDepot15 – Reaching 13.75% CAGR with stockpicking"

JuniorDepot14 – Getting Profitable Again and Training Patience

Elle's portfolio has recovered with the recent rise of the markets. We fortunately closed all positions near their recent maxima, Elle again makes profit.
Currently, we watch the market carefully but don't hurry up to open the new positions. If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by (Sun Tzu). Continue reading "JuniorDepot14 – Getting Profitable Again and Training Patience"

JuniorDepot13 – Things are getting better as the markets recover

As we have previously reported, the year 2018 was not very good for Elle's portfolio, indeed it was bad. But we looked optimistically in future and were right: the portfolio recovers with the market and the opportunities for the active trading arise. Continue reading "JuniorDepot13 – Things are getting better as the markets recover"

Salaries in German IT Branch – a Case Study of Critical Statistics Review

Recently I have read the results of salary survey among Russian-speaking  software developers in Germany, published on dou.ua. I was skeptical about the validity of conclusions and expressed my critics (a bit less polite than I should have done it). But the survey author reasonably pointed out that he did his best in his free time and did provide the raw survey data. Recalling a popular motto in Soviet Union: if you are disagree then criticize but if you criticize then do it better I try to interpret the survey results more correctly. Continue reading "Salaries in German IT Branch – a Case Study of Critical Statistics Review"

JuniorDepot12 – DAX, Silver, Oil: pessimistic end of year and optimistic sentiment for future

By Elle's portfolio we implicitly target the CAGR of 6%. Alas, this year the CAGR turned out to be -24.7%! Especially our recent portfolio restructuring (sell Silver and buy DAX and WTI Oil) was not good.
Still we are better than a passive savings plan in DAX (this would have a CAGR of -30.7%) and look optimistically in future. Especially pleasant was Elle's reaction on the (temporary) drawdown: calm and stoic. This a necessarily trait for a growing Warren Buffet. Continue reading "JuniorDepot12 – DAX, Silver, Oil: pessimistic end of year and optimistic sentiment for future"

PCA, Autoencoders and the Feasibility of Stockpicking

The idea that the stock picking makes less and less sense since the markets are more and more driven by the macroeconomic factors is quite popular.
Especially right now, as the markets are falling (like on todays FEd decision to increase the rates), this idea may seem to be plausible. However, we show that in the long term the stocks do show enough of individuality. Continue reading "PCA, Autoencoders and the Feasibility of Stockpicking"

Historic Black Swans in Historical Financial Data: EQT on 13.11. 2018 et al.

On November 13, 2018 the shares of EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) fell down by 46%. Yet, as Montley Fool reported, it was just a spinoff of the midstream assets into a separate public company, Equitrans Midstream Corp... FinViz and eoddata.com has completely failed to depict this event properly. Yahoo.Finance and AlphaVantage coped with it but only to some extent. We discuss the problems, caused by such events and sketch some ways to mitigate them. Continue reading "Historic Black Swans in Historical Financial Data: EQT on 13.11. 2018 et al."

JuniorDepot11 – Speculating with DAX and WTI Oil

Elle, a 8-years old girl, who learns to manage her wealth, got started to trade more and more intensively. During the current market turbulence it actually makes sense. This time we speculate with an oil-ETC and learn the nuances of commodity trading. Continue reading "JuniorDepot11 – Speculating with DAX and WTI Oil"