Portfolio Simulator – estimate the expected risk and return of your investments

Our simulator allows you to simulate 100 future scenarios of your portfolios, estimate the expected risk, return and correlations, helping you to improve the diversification of your portfolios. The simulator projects the historical returns in future and is completely model-free (in particular, we don't make an unrealistic assumption of Normally-distributed returns). Though the past doesn't capture all possible future scenarios, it provides a good idea of possible outcomes.
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My Fund Somewhat better than DUCKS is 1 year old: a festive but fair review

My wikifolio ("Somewhat better than DUCKS", ISIN: DE000LS9HDK3) is investable from 28.10.2016. It surely beats the DAX (main German stock index) both on absolute and risk-adjusted performance. Though I am very proud of my performance, I provide a closer look at it and show that sometimes I had just luck and sometimes I could have done better. I always preach for the rigorous and cold-blooded performance analysis and the best sermon is to demonstrate it by the example of myself.

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A simple scenario simulator for Vanguard optimal portfolio

Vanguard optimal portfolio - 100 scenarios - sample simulationThere is yet another Roboadvisor from Vanguard Group. As any RoboAdvisor, its recommendations are far from perfection. However, I like it (at least more than others) because the Vanguard guys managed to make it simple. On the other hand I am quite disappointed that they do not show how a suggested portfolio may evolve (and I am quite sure that legendary John Bogle would be disappointed too). That's why I made a simple scenario simulator on my own. It is based on sample with replacement.
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Stripping down the robo-advisors: sparrow-brains inside

Robo Advisor - Sparrow Brains


  • Robo-advisors promise the risk profiling in a few easy steps, which is unrealistic both from mathematical and behavioral points of view.
  • The "optimal" portfolios are usually based on Markowitz-like models, which are inapplicable in practice due to their extreme numerical sensitivity to the market parameters estimation errors.
  • Robo-advisors lure investors with low management fees but minimizing fees and maximizing the wealth is not the same. Moreover, the compound costs are not so small in the long term.
  • A positive side: Robo-advisers do not (yet) foist toxic financial products upon you.

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Numeracy for Traders- Lesson 1 – Fractions

Fractions is a topic from elementary mathematics but surprisingly even some Ph.Ds in math have problems with them. After this lesson you will be able to read pie diagrams, calculate portfolio weights and weighted average returns. This lesson does not substitute systematic learning but helps you to recall fractions and demonstrates their usage in trading context.

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