letYourMoneyGrow.com Wishes You Happy New Year

Year 2017 was exciting. Markets grew but were very hard, so even Einstein (although he made 30%) says he failed to beat Mr. Market this year. The big question is how 2018 will be, esp. because the market has not seen a correction for a long time. Neither we know the answer but our goal is not to predict the future but rather to help you analyze what may happen. Understanding your own risks and how the numerous rascals may cheat you is essential in trading and investing because there is generally no profit without risk but there are a lot of (idiosyncratic) risks without profit!
We summarize which such risks we have recognized and will continue doing it in 2018. 
letYourMoneyGrow.com helps retail investor to protect themselves against rascals
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Building QuantLibXL in Visual Studio 2017

QuantLibXL (Excel QuantLibAddin) provides a [limited subset of] QuantLib functionality directly in Excel. However, its development follows the development of QuantLib with a lag, e.g. currently the last modified date in project repository is 2017-05-02. I tried to build QuantLibXL with currently latest version of the Visual Studio (success) and to bind it to the latest version of QuantLib (no way).
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Should I use a Trading Simulator to learn how to trade?

Have you ever thought of being a trader?
I mean trading things like stocks, currencies, options or anything else that you can buy and sell almost instantly - typically online - by pressing a button and not illiquid assets, such as houses or antique furniture.
Wouldn’t it be great to get some sense of what real world trading looks like before setting up an account with an online brokerage firm and putting your own money on risk?
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The Mon(k)ey Value of BitCoin

The joke about monkey for $10, $20, promise to pay $50, which is currently getting very popular in the Russian segment of Facebook, is not new. It was initially attributed to the Wall Street. However, we decided to re-tell it, because the allusion to BitCoin is even stronger.
Once upon a time in a village in India , a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys BitCoins for $10. Continue reading "The Mon(k)ey Value of BitCoin"

Zinsen gibt es: in der USA

In Deutschland gibt es seit Jahren keine [Anlage-]Zinsen. In EU-Raum bieten zwar die langfristigen Spanischen oder Italienischen Staatsanleihen ca. 3% Rendite an (und die Griechen versprechen sogar ca. 5%), ist diese Risikoprämie wohl nicht umsonst. Darüber hinaus gibt es nicht für jedes EU-Land entsprechenden Anleihen-ETF, auf jeden Fall nicht unter gebührenfreien ETFs von DeGiro.
Gleichzeitig bietet die USA langfristig fast 3% p.a. an und man kann mittels iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) einfach (und durch DeGiro sogar gebührenfrei) investieren. Die Währungsrisiken betrachten wir bei jetzigem Dollarkurs eher als Währungschancen. Die von Fed angekündigte Zinserhöhung ist wohl schon im Kurs berücksichtigt.
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FinTech-Days Stuttgart – Schwabenland wacht auf

Baden-Württemberg (und insb. das Schwabenland) ist die reichste Region Deutschlands. Jedoch sind wir im Sinne von FinTech (noch) nicht führend. Dank Stuttgart Financial, Börse Stuttgart, L-Bank, VentureZphere und zahlreiche Sponsors und Teilnehmer holen wir nach. Continue reading "FinTech-Days Stuttgart – Schwabenland wacht auf"

QuantLib for Mere Mortals – Insights from QL User Meeting 2017

We have already used QuantLib at letYourMoneyGrow.com several times, in particular to provide a helpful scenario simulator for option traders. QuantLib User Meeting 2017, in which I also took part, provides insights on how to make QuantLib even more accessible for the "mere mortals".
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ETF Sparplan: Risiken und Vorteile richtig verstehen

Wir erklären, wie ein Sparplan funktioniert und warum die Mantra „langfristig wird es nach oben gehen“ für einen ETF-Sparplan ungültig ist.
ETF Sparplan - Wachstum und Crash Continue reading "ETF Sparplan: Risiken und Vorteile richtig verstehen"

Savings Plan Scenario Simulator


Definitely, you have heard a mantra from many asset managers that want your money: in the long term your investment in stocks or an index ETF will grow. Though for a one-time investment it is generally true (however, not always, recall NIKKEI), it is far away from truth for a savings plan. For instance, even if you run your savings plan for 30 years and assume annually 6% expected return and 20% volatility (very optimistic, indeed), you will make losses in ca. 15% of scenarios. And if your saving plan lasts "only" 10 years, the number of scenarios with losses will be about 30%! Additionally, they delude you showing the mean (or expected) scenario. Mean is highly influenced by a couple of extremely good outcomes: finally, your investment cannot fall below zero but there is no upper bound, at least theoretically. That's why the average scenario often looks too optimistic. It is much better to consider the median as the measure of central tendency instead. Try to simulate your savings plan yourself!

Expected mean return %
Volatility %
Annual Savings USD, EUR, YEN or whatever currency 🙂
Projection horizon years

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Rauchen ist tödlich … und macht arm

Es ist generell bekannt, dass das Rauchen die Lebensjahre beraubt.  Ich zeige - anhand der Sterblichkeitsstatistik – wie viele. Weniger bewusst ist, wie viel Geld man mit Zigaretten verschwendet (oder besser zu sagen – verraucht). Mit diesem Geld könnte ein Raucher für sein Alter vorsorgen bzw. eine Immobilie finanzieren. Eine schwache Trost für diejenige, die das Rauchen nicht aufgeben können:  die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Ihr gar keine Altersvorsorge braucht, ist viel höher als bei Nichtraucher.

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